Delayed Cherry Blossom Season in South Korea
Due to the lingering effects of late cold snaps and fluctuating temperatures, this spring’s cherry blossoms in inland areas, including Seoul, are expected to reach full bloom only in early to mid-April. This delay in flowering, where blossoms fail to open on schedule due to cold winds after a warm start, is particularly noticeable across central regions. While global warming has accelerated the blooming period compared to the past, spring temperatures over the last three years have frequently swung between cold and warm extremes, causing the peak bloom to recur later.
According to the Korea Forest Service, this year’s cherry blossoms are projected to peak in mid-March on Jeju Island, followed by early April in southern regions and early to mid-April in central areas. Jeju, where plum blossoms—often called “messengers of spring”—bloomed about a month earlier than last year, is expected to see cherry blossoms peak on March 22 (based on Hallasan Arboretum), the earliest in the country. Last year’s peak bloom date on Jeju was March 27. In southern regions, peaks are anticipated at Mount Wolchulsan (April 3) and Naejangsan (April 7) in the Honam area, as well as at Palgongsan and Juwangsan (April 7) in the Yeongnam area. Central regions, including the National Arboretum in Gyeonggi Province, Gyeryongsan in Chungcheong, and Seoraksan in Gangwon, are expected to reach peak bloom slightly later, around April 10.
Warming trends have significantly advanced the blooming period. In 1973, when the Korea Meteorological Administration began recording cherry blossom blooms, Seoul’s blossoms opened on April 8 and peaked four days later on April 12. By the 2020s, the bloom date had shifted to late March. In 2020, blossoms opened on March 27 and peaked on April 1, while in 2021, they opened on March 24 and peaked on March 29, becoming a “March spring flower.” The Meteorological Administration defines peak bloom as when over 80% of blossoms on a tree have opened, unlike the Forest Service’s 50% threshold.
Recent Reversal in Bloom Trends
However, this trend has reversed recently. In 2023, Seoul’s cherry blossoms opened on March 25 and peaked five days later on March 30. In 2022, the bloom and peak dates were delayed to April 1 and April 4, respectively, while last year they were further postponed to April 4 and April 10. This year, peak bloom in the capital region is expected around April 10, about a decade later than three years ago. Gwangju’s peak shifted from March 26 in 2023 to April 4 last year, and Busan’s from March 26 to April 3 over the same period. Excluding Jeju, which is less affected by cold winds, all inland areas have experienced delayed blooms.
This is attributed to increased temperature volatility in spring. Stable warm conditions are essential for cherry blossoms to bloom, but the Siberian high-pressure system, known for winter winds, has frequently sent cold air south in March and April, disrupting flowering. Plants require a “base temperature” (5°C for cherry blossoms) to begin growth and an “accumulated temperature” of 210°C to open buds. For example, Seoul’s average temperature on the 1st of this month was 9.1°C. Subtracting the base temperature (5°C) leaves 4.1°C, which is added to the “temperature savings account” for blossoms. Once the accumulated temperature exceeds 210°C, buds open; at 250–300°C, they reach peak bloom.
However, during the cold snap on the 6th–7th, average temperatures dropped to 1.9°C and 1°C, respectively, adding nothing to the “temperature savings account.” Frequent temperature swings have thus delayed blooming. A source from the National Institute of Forest Science explained, “Stable warm temperatures are needed for buds to develop and bloom, but recent erratic spring temperatures have caused delays.”
Weather Forecast for Upcoming Days
Meanwhile, on Monday the 9th, morning temperatures are expected to remain below freezing across most regions due to cold northerly winds. The forecast predicts morning lows of -4°C to 2°C and daytime highs of 6–12°C. The central region may see less than 1 mm of rain, while Gangwon Province could receive 1–5 cm of snow.
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