Kwara State: A Crucible of Political Rivalry Amidst Consensus Aspirations
While other states in Nigeria’s South-West region are exploring paths toward consensus candidates within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Kwara State presents a starkly different political landscape. Here, deep-rooted rivalries, competing power blocs, and persistent zoning disputes threaten to unravel any attempts at a unified approach, creating a complex and potentially volatile environment for the party’s 2027 governorship ticket.
The APC has traditionally favored consensus as a means to minimize internal conflict and project an image of unity. This strategy has proven effective in stabilizing party structures in various states. However, in Kwara, the application of this model is encountering significant headwinds. Unlike the more streamlined political machinery observed in states like Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo, where high-level consultations involving national leadership have reportedly paved the way for favored candidates, the Kwara APC is grappling with a confluence of entrenched factional interests, ambitious personal agendas, and ideological divides that render compromise a formidable challenge.
The Illusion of Consensus in Kwara
At its core, the appeal of a consensus candidate lies in its potential to reduce the financial burden of primaries, avert post-election litigation, and allow the party to rally cohesively behind a single flagbearer. Such arrangements are also legally permissible under Nigeria’s Electoral Act. Yet, within Kwara, the reality is far more intricate.
Insiders suggest that imposing a consensus candidate without provoking significant opposition is an unlikely scenario. “There is no single power centre that can impose consensus without resistance,” commented a chieftain of the APC in the state. “Every major aspirant has a structure, and more importantly, has backers who are unwilling to step down.”
This divergence from states like Lagos or Ogun, where political hierarchies are often more clearly defined and aligned with presidential influence, is a critical distinction. In Kwara APC, at least four distinct power blocs are actively vying for control of the party’s 2027 governorship nomination.
- The Incumbent Governor: Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq occupies a central position, wielding significant influence over succession dynamics due to his current incumbency.
- The National Presidency: The silent but potent influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains a crucial factor. Many aspirants invoke his name, and national political calculations in the North-Central region may not always align with local preferences.
- Established Political Figures: This bloc includes seasoned politicians and aspirants such as Saliu Mustapha and Yahaya Seriki, who previously contested against the incumbent governor. They possess long-standing grassroots and elite alliances.
- Legacy Structures and Opposition: This segment encompasses former APC state chairmen, like Hon. Bashir Bolarinwa, and opposition forces associated with Bukola Saraki, whose political shadow continues to influence the state’s landscape.
The presence of these competing centres of power has fostered an environment where consensus is more readily discussed than achieved.
Governor vs. Aspirants: A Tug-of-War for Control
A key element of the unfolding political drama revolves around who controls the APC structure in Kwara. While Governor AbdulRazaq is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the succession, several aspirants are concurrently positioning themselves as independent power bases.
Speculation surrounding the governor’s alleged preference for the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Salihu Danladi, has added another layer of complexity. However, the Governor has publicly dismissed these rumors, asserting that the APC will conduct an open and merit-based primary for the 2027 governorship race. He emphasized that the party’s focus is on building a legacy, not a dynasty.
Despite these assurances, supporters of other aspirants remain skeptical, perceiving attempts to anoint a candidate as a potential imposition—a concept that clashes with the post-2019 political consciousness in Kwara, largely driven by the “Otogé” (enough is enough) movement. A senior party stakeholder, speaking anonymously, warned that such an approach could ignite a serious internal crisis. This tension highlights a broader dilemma: balancing the influence of incumbency with the principles of internal democracy.
Battle Lines Drawn: Competition Intensifies
Unlike in Lagos, where consensus discussions reportedly followed structured consultations among stakeholders, Kwara’s aspirants are already engaged in a subtle yet intense competition. Supporters of leading contenders have strategically positioned themselves, employing behind-the-scenes lobbying, media campaigns, and grassroots mobilization.
Senator Saliu Mustapha’s recent outreach efforts, including donations extending beyond his senatorial district, are widely interpreted as calculated moves to consolidate support. Similarly, Yahaya Seriki’s philanthropic endeavors and donations during the recent Ramadan period have bolstered his political visibility and grassroots appeal. Senator Sadiq Umar has also recently organized a football competition in Kwara Central, a move seen by many as an attempt to gain traction in that senatorial district.
Other aspirants, including party loyalists and technocrats, are quietly forging alliances. Political observers note that this crowded field means each camp believes it has a legitimate claim to the ticket, making calls for stepping down for consensus unrealistic. This scenario echoes the dynamics of 2019, where a lack of consensus among key figures led to a protracted primary process with delayed results.
Zoning: A Major Obstacle to Consensus
Beyond internal rivalries, the issue of zoning presents another significant hurdle to achieving consensus in Kwara. The long-standing demand for the governorship from Kwara North has gained considerable momentum ahead of 2027. Leaders from the region argue that, apart from the brief tenure of Shaaba Lafiagi in the early 1990s, Kwara North has been largely excluded from occupying the state’s highest office. For them, zoning is a matter of equity and justice.
This position, however, is strongly contested by stakeholders from Kwara Central, the state’s demographic and political stronghold. Given that Kwara Central and Kwara South collectively account for a substantial portion of the state’s voting strength, many argue that zoning the ticket away from these regions could jeopardize the APC’s electoral prospects. This viewpoint has been articulated by figures like Professor Abubakar Suleiman, who has cautioned against repeating what he described as the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) miscalculations in 2023. The clash between zoning advocates and proponents of merit has created a deep ideological fault line within the party, one that consensus alone may not easily bridge.
The Tinubu Factor: Influence, Not Absolute Control
While President Tinubu’s influence is expected to be a significant factor, analysts suggest it may not be absolute in Kwara. In the South-West, Tinubu’s political authority is largely uncontested, facilitating consensus-building. However, in Kwara, his role as President and party leader must contend with local dynamics, entrenched interests, and competing loyalties.
“Tinubu can guide, but he cannot outrightly dictate in Kwara the way he might in Lagos,” observed a political analyst. Furthermore, recent developments indicate that even within the South-West, the narrative of consensus is not without its internal controversies.
Lessons from the West, Realities of Kwara
The emerging consensus models in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo offer valuable insights but also underscore Kwara’s unique political context. In those states, the process, whether fully realized or still evolving, has been characterized by structured consultations, strong party leadership, and a shared commitment to unity.
In Kwara, the absence of a single dominant structure implies that any pursuit of consensus would necessitate extensive negotiations, significant concessions, and potentially compensatory arrangements. As one party insider aptly put it, “Consensus is easy when everyone agrees. In Kwara, the challenge is that everyone believes they should be the consensus.”
While consensus offers a potential pathway to unity and early mobilization, the realities of intense internal competition, unresolved zoning disputes, and the presence of multiple power centres make its implementation exceedingly difficult. Consultations are ongoing, alliances are fluid, and ambitions remain undimmed.
The greatest risk facing the APC in Kwara is not merely the difficulty of achieving consensus, but the possibility that forceful attempts to enforce it could exacerbate internal divisions. Contentious primaries and the imposition of candidates in various states have historically led to defections, the formation of parallel party structures, and subsequent electoral losses. With the opposition PDP, bolstered by Saraki’s influence, remaining a formidable force, any internal crisis within the APC could prove detrimental.
Ultimately, unlike Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo, where consensus may be gradually taking shape, Kwara’s journey toward selecting a gubernatorial candidate is poised to be far more tumultuous. The critical question is not whether the APC will attempt a consensus in Kwara, but whether the state’s complex political ecosystem will permit it. This reality may ultimately shape not only the APC’s internal dynamics but also the outcome of the 2027 governorship election itself.
