The Gubernatorial Race in Nairobi Heats Up
Nairobi’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most contested battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 polls, with rival camps jostling for the capital’s top job. Various leaders have declared their interest in the position, seeking to dethrone Governor Johnson Sakaja, who has come under intensified criticism over a cooperation deal with the national government.
A recent opinion poll by Radio Africa Group reflected this intensity. The poll that sampled 500 registered voters in Nairobi showed Embakasi East MP Babu Owino commanding a lead of 42 per cent, followed by Governor Johnson Sakaja at 17.6 per cent. Others in the race are Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri (8 per cent), Makadara MP George Aladwa (7.1 per cent), and Embakasi North MP James Gakuya (5.7 per cent).
At the center of the high-stakes battle are party interests as well as national political realignments.
Gakuya is seeking to fly former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) ticket. Also battling out for the DCP ticket is former Planning PS Irungu Nyakera, the party’s patron in the city.
Already, Gachagua has declared that DCP will field a United Opposition candidate for Nairobi governor, pitting Gakuya and Nyakera as the forerunners for the ticket.
Gakuya has been raring for a showdown with Governor Sakaja since 2024, when he challenged the incumbent for UDA chairman in Nairobi, prior to the fallout in the ruling party after Gachagua’s impeachment.
In a recent twist of events, Nairobi politicians drawn from UDA met at Kenya School of Science to “forge 2027 political journey,” led by Gakuya.
Led by Dagoretti South MP John Kiarie, nominated Senator Tabitha Mutinda, and Nairobi South MCA Waithera Chege, the leaders said the meeting sought to deliberate on how they will move ahead of the polls.
Mutinda has already declared her interest in the Nairobi Senate job, signalling the formation of a line-up under Gakuya.
She will face it out with incumbent Edwin Sifuna and Phelix Odiwuor, alias Jalang’o.
Babu’s bid has generated headlines due to his high profile and populist political style, identifying with the young city constituency.
Babu, who is aligning with Sifuna’s ODM camp, has publicly declared his intention to contest the City Hall race “with or without ODM’s” backing.
“If ODM supports me, well and good. If not, I’ll still be on the ballot. Nairobi needs change and I’m ready to deliver,” Babu said, signaling his readiness for the race.
Gachagua has further thrown a spanner in the works with his invitation of Babu Owino into the opposition ranks.
Following the fallout in ODM, Gachagua has invited Babu alongside Senator Sifuna, urging them to either join DCP or Wiper. Sifuna, on the other hand, has signalled intention of working with the United Opposition.
Governor Sakaja is betting on defending his seat with the backing of the UDA-ODM broad-based arrangement following his endorsement by former ODM boss Raila Odinga.
His tenure has, however, faced various challenges, surviving an impeachment bid after talks by Raila.
Sakaja came under intense criticism over the management of the city, with accusations of poor governance.
He has also come under criticism from both sides of the political divide following a controversial cooperation agreement signed with the national government.
Sifuna regretted that despite the governor assuring he was not transferring any functions to the national government, a cooperation agreement was signed at State House.
These senators called for respect for provisions of the Constitution and the need for involvement of the electorate and the leadership of Nairobi prior to making such decisions.
“Any unconstitutional clawback to devolution shall be strenuously resisted,” he said.
Other leaders who have expressed interest in the race are Aladwa and 2022 candidate Agnes Kagure.
Aladwa declared in December he will vie for the post on the ODM ticket, while Kagure will seek the job on the Kenya Patriots Party.
Kagure has already started intensifying her campaigns, with a recent political meeting in Gakuya’s backyard of Embakasi North.
Political analysts say the Nairobi race reflects broader national tensions as alliances shift and parties recalibrate ahead of 2027.
“Nairobi has always been a bellwether for national politics. Whoever controls City Hall gains both symbolic and strategic advantage,” political analyst Denis Mwangi said.
However, university don and political analyst Herman Manyora opines it is too early to tell how the race pans out with the changing dynamics.
“A month ago, it was seen as if it was Babu Owino regardless of the party. A few weeks back, it appeared you would go nowhere without Gachagua. Now, the dynamics have further shifted with the Sifuna factor,” he told the Star.
As Babu aligns with Sifuna, ODM leaders are urging him back to the mainstream faction in ODM to stand a better chance of winning the seat.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma in a social media post warned Babu not to bet on the Kikuyu vote base in Nairobi as it will side with Gakuya.
“Your Agikuyu in-laws vote for Gakuya to be Nairobi Governor in 2027, with a running mate from the Akamba community. Please return home to ODM and be the running mate of Sakaja in 2027,” he said.
“This way, you will win and get time to rebuild your bid for Nairobi Governor in 2032. Alternatively, seek re-election as MP of Embakasi East in 2027 as you bid time for your gubernatorial bid in 2032.”
